C’est, en substance, ce que montre l’étude de Christiane Nickel et Andreas Tudyka publiée sur VoxEu. Les recherches économiques des deux auteurs montrent que si la relance (fiscal stimulus) peut avoir un effet positif sur la croissance dans les pays à faible rapport dette/pib, ce n’est absolument pas le cas dans les pays qui ont une dette élevée…

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Our results indicate that the private sector increasingly internalises the government budget constraint as the degree of indebtedness rises. This qualifies debt as an important variable to watch when thinking about the impact of fiscal stimulus.

  • In particular, while fiscal stimuli exert expansionary effects on macroeconomic activity at low debt-to-GDP ratios, the overall effect on real GDP becomes less positive or even negative points at higher debt-to-GDP ratios.
  • Depending on which debt scenario we examine, our results accommodate the inconclusive results of previous studies, which either document positively correlated or divergent behaviour of government activity and the trade balance or the current account.

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