Le graphique ci dessous (dynamique en théorie), publié par Mark Perry qui l’avait emprunté au blog Calculated Risk, montre la répartition par âge de la population américaine depuis 1900 et jusqu’en 2060. Certes elle vieillit, mais on note qu’en 2025, les cohortes les plus importantes seront celles de moins de 40 ans.

PopDist (1)

Le concepteur du graphique établit les conclusions suivantes

1. In 1900, the graph was fairly steep, but with improving health care, the graph has flattened out over the last 100 years.

2. Prior to 1940, the oldest age group was 75+ years.  From 1940 through 1985, the oldest group was 85+ and starting in 1990, the oldest group is 100+.

3. Watch for the original baby bust preceding the baby boom (the decline in births prior to and during the Depression) – these are the people currently in retirement.

4) The start of the Baby Boom in 1945 is pretty obvious.

5) By 2020 or 2025, the largest age cohorts will all be under 40.

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