D’après une étude publiée récemment par le Fraser Institute (Canada) l’incertitude politique (policy uncertainty) a des effets négatifs sur la croissance et l’emploi. Depuis 30 ans, les crises de confiance ont été suivies de chute dans la croissance.

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Principales conclusions:

> Increases in policy uncertainty forecast future drops in economic growth and employment.

> Following an increase in policy uncertainty of the size seen on average between 2006 and 2011, industrial production in the US dropped by 2.5 percent and employment by 2.4 million.

> Much of Canada’s current economic policy uncertainty is due to contagion from the US.

> The US and Canadian economies would benefit demonstrably if economic uncertainty emanating from policy were reduced. Unfortunately, this looks unlikely to occur soon. Economic policy uncertainty is the new normal

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